The automobile industry faces an important period of development opportunities

 Since the beginning of this year, the automobile market has continued to perform well. At this time of transition from old to new, it is of great concern to see what direction the automobile market will take in the coming year 2024.

Production and sales hit record high The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "China Association of Automobile Manufacturers") recently released data showing that my country's monthly automobile production hit a record high in November, and the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 1 million units for the first time.

 Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, said that the market share of new energy vehicles has exceeded 30% for seven consecutive months, and the market is stable and showing a gradual improvement trend. It is expected that my country's automobile production and sales will reach 30 million units in 2023, a record high.

 The passenger car market performed well. In November this year, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.705 million units and 2.604 million units respectively, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and 25.3% respectively. As for the reasons for the rapid year-on-year growth in production and sales in November, the China Automobile Association believes that on the one hand it is affected by the tail-off factor at the end of the year, and on the other hand it is related to the low base in the same period last year.

 Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, said that in November this year, the car market's promotion efforts continued to increase, and the promotion efforts of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles increased month-on-month. Targeted implementation of additional purchase promotions and local subsidies increased car purchase consumption. Demand has been released.

 It is worth noting that Chinese automobile brands are gradually occupying a dominant position in the passenger car market.  In November, the sales volume of Chinese brand passenger cars was 1.556 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.9%, and the market share reached 59.7%. Among them, new energy vehicles are becoming “new kinetic energy”.  In November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.074 million and 1.026 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 39.2% and 30% respectively, with a market share of 34.5%.

 my country's automobile exports are also growing rapidly. In the first 11 months of this year, automobile export volume was 4.412 million units, a year-on-year increase of 58.4%. Guo Fang, director of the Third Export Division of the Trade Remedy and Investigation Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that my country’s automobile industry faces important development opportunities. From an external perspective, the low-carbon transformation of the world economy will boost the sustained and rapid development of the global new energy vehicle market; from an internal perspective, my country's complete supply chain system provides strong support for the automobile industry to maintain international competitiveness.

Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that the automobile market will present three major highlights in 2023. First, automobile production and sales will hit a record high; second, new energy vehicles will continue to grow rapidly; third, automobile exports will hit another record. A new high, with sales expected to reach 4.9 million or even 5 million vehicles in 2023.

Sales growth can be expected next year

 The high-quality development of China's automobile industry, especially the development of new energy vehicles, provides a good opportunity for China's automobile industry to deeply participate in international market competition. Wang Qing, deputy director of the Institute of Market Economics of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the growth rate of automobile sales next year will largely depend on the growth rate of exports. Judging from the export situation, it is predicted that the growth rate of automobile wholesale sales next year will remain at 4% to 5%.

 Sun Xiaohong, secretary-general of the Automobile Branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, analyzed that in the next two years, my country's automobile exports are expected to surpass Japan in terms of export value, accounting for about 10% of the world's total. my country's car manufacturing capabilities have improved, and electrification and intelligence are leading overseas brands. The recognition of independent brands in overseas markets has generally increased, accelerating the process of going overseas.

 Wang Qing said that domestic market sales have still not reached the growth level of the potential market size. Potential sales will be slowly released when the consumer market gradually recovers and economic growth gradually stabilizes. This is an important support for the growth of my country's automobile market in the next step.

Chen Chuan, director of the Passenger Vehicle Research Office of China Automotive Data Co., Ltd., analyzed that in 2024, the macroeconomy and consumer confidence will continue to recover moderately, and fundamentals support a slight increase in sales in the auto market. However, the superimposed "price-for-volume" trend continues and replacement demand accelerates. As well as factors such as new product drivers, the overall growth rate of the domestic passenger car market in 2024 will reach 3.2%.

For 2024, the China Automobile Association predicts that total car sales in the Chinese market will reach 31 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars is about 26.8 million units; the sales volume of commercial vehicles is about 4.2 million units; the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 11.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20%; the overall automobile export volume is expected to reach 5.5 million units.